What Miliband is really up to
Reading about Phase 2 of Miliband's campaign against Gordon Brown, Machiavelli has been pondering exactly what he's up to. Surely, Miliband cannot possibly want to be Prime Minister now. Labour have already lost the general election and a change of leader (even back to Blair) cannot save them. All the polling figures show that Miliband cannot draw Labour back from the brink of defeat. Of course, much depends on profile - and were we to wake up one morning soon to find that Mr Miliband was indeed our la-*test*-('") Prime Minister, doubtless his level of support in polling would respond to that dramatically improved profile. But the fact remains that, were Labour to ditch Brown and appoint their third Prime Minister in a Parliament, demands for a general election would be so intense, and so widespread, both in the political and media spheres and amongst the public at large, that the demand would be impossible not to heed. And, as every Labour MP appears to understand, a general election now means certain defeat with a Tory landslide now. Why would Miliband want to lead Labour into this cataclismic defeat? The answer is staring us all in the face. Miliband's game is not to force Brown out. He's calculated, as have the rest of us, that Brown is a busted flush. He's too weak to sack Miliband - or even demote him. What Miliband is engaged in, therefore, is long-term positioning. The game is to establish himself well ahead of the general election aftermath as the heir apparent. And so he writes an article, followed by a radio call-in, implicitly attacking Brown's failings and displaying his ability to hit back at the Tories. This has the added pleasure of fucking up Mr Brown's "holiday", and immediately after Miliband heads abroad - which leaves the issue hanging in the August air without allowing the leadership questio to get overheated. Then he waits a couple of months - beginning of August to end of September - until the Labour conference. He makes a speech setting out his personal credo. He gives a Prime Minister's speech. This weakens Brown further, and Labour still has no other convincing leadership runners. Machiavelli's view, therefore, is that Miliband is not aiming to knock Brown off his rocking horse and seize Number 10: Miliband wants to lead Labour through a four year Parliament in opposition, hoping Brown's economic slowdown will hit the Tories in the polls and win in, say, 2014. http://machiavellitheprince.blogspot.com/2008/08/what-miliband-is-really-up-to.html
Reading about Phase 2 of Miliband's campaign against Gordon Brown, Machiavelli has been pondering exactly what he's up to. Surely, Miliband cannot possibly want to be Prime Minister now. Labour have already lost the general election and a change of leader (even back to Blair) cannot save them. All the polling figures show that Miliband cannot draw Labour back from the brink of defeat. Of course, much depends on profile - and were we to wake up one morning soon to find that Mr Miliband was indeed our la-*test*-('") Prime Minister, doubtless his level of support in polling would respond to that dramatically improved profile. But the fact remains that, were Labour to ditch Brown and appoint their third Prime Minister in a Parliament, demands for a general election would be so intense, and so widespread, both in the political and media spheres and amongst the public at large, that the demand would be impossible not to heed. And, as every Labour MP appears to understand, a general election now means certain defeat with a Tory landslide now. Why would Miliband want to lead Labour into this cataclismic defeat? The answer is staring us all in the face. Miliband's game is not to force Brown out. He's calculated, as have the rest of us, that Brown is a busted flush. He's too weak to sack Miliband - or even demote him. What Miliband is engaged in, therefore, is long-term positioning. The game is to establish himself well ahead of the general election aftermath as the heir apparent. And so he writes an article, followed by a radio call-in, implicitly attacking Brown's failings and displaying his ability to hit back at the Tories. This has the added pleasure of fucking up Mr Brown's "holiday", and immediately after Miliband heads abroad - which leaves the issue hanging in the August air without allowing the leadership questio to get overheated. Then he waits a couple of months - beginning of August to end of September - until the Labour conference. He makes a speech setting out his personal credo. He gives a Prime Minister's speech. This weakens Brown further, and Labour still has no other convincing leadership runners. Machiavelli's view, therefore, is that Miliband is not aiming to knock Brown off his rocking horse and seize Number 10: Miliband wants to lead Labour through a four year Parliament in opposition, hoping Brown's economic slowdown will hit the Tories in the polls and win in, say, 2014. http://machiavellitheprince.blogspot.com/2008/08/what-miliband-is-really-up-to.html